Distressed capital does not trade cycles. It operates through them. The discipline is to read the dislocation and execute within it — not to forecast its end.
Cycle calls are entertainment for liquid markets. In illiquid real estate, the cycle defines the shape of the inventory, not the timing of the trade.
During expansion, distressed inventory thins and competition compresses returns. During contraction, inventory deepens, complexity intensifies and selectivity becomes the binding constraint.
Our framework adjusts the operating posture across these phases without abandoning the discipline. We do not chase volume in good markets, and we do not retreat from complexity in dislocated ones.
Patience compounds where impatience destroys. Cycle-reading is operational, not predictive.